What an Ideal population policy should be ?? - 1

Disclaimer : This blog is not to offend any parent having single child but definitely want to provoke an idea logically - "Why two not one" is an ideal population policy for any country. It has two parts. your opinion is always welcome.

Recently I was reading a book “Imagining India” by Nanden Nilekani , where he talked very elaborately about china's population policy and he mentioned that currently in China, according to an estimate that most of Children in China have no cousins. Currently, in China most of the families have 4-2-1 structure  where a child(1) has parents (2) and two pairs of grandparents (4). Since child has no siblings and no uncle and Aunts, all the family members look upon that single child, care him/her, pamper him/her up to all extent, because he/she is the one on whom they are dependent in their old age.  Because of such family structure, it will become a big social and economic problem in China. If we look at country level, now China’s demographic dividend window has been closed and their population is aging at faster rate, and by 2040, they have largest no. of old age people in the world and it is very high (around 40%) percentage of their population. This will not only add burden to their economy but also will impact their military power. By 2040, India strategically will have enormous advantages in comparison to China. Economy wise, Companies will shift their base to the India because they need young labour and plus India itself is a big market for their goods. Militarily, Indian army will be the youngest and largest army in the world by 2040, which will add muscle to our strategic interests worldwide.  

Recently, China has tried to amend its population policy by allowing their citizens to have two babies in case their first child is girl. We must be aware of the fact that Chinese society is as patriarchal society as that of India. There are also equal no. of Female foeticides happen every year because of male child preference. But blame of female foeticides also goes to their one child policy, since because of government's strict policy, people prefer to keep one male child than a female one. China’s sex ratio is much worse that of India.  Though Government has changed their policy but now the young generation in china don’t want to have more than one child. Reason are many. As they haven’t seen their parents or society to have more than one child, it has been mentally stuck in the psyche of the young Chinese generation not to have more than one child and sometimes no child. Other reasons could be that with the economic boom, when both couple go out for a work, they hardly think of having child – Remember Vicky donor :) . Other reason is that the cost of living is rising in China , since the cost of energy and food is spiraling worldwide, but the labour class in china is still not adequately compensated because of government’s labour regulations which favours the factory owners who exploit these workers in order to keep their products cost competitive in the world. The China’s model of export led growth in actually now hampering their economy and has led to mass unrest at many places in china, though we don’t get to know these news because of State controlled media and highly censored media regime. So for a labour class it is hard to think of having more child. Thirdly, most of the Cities in China are located near South China sea and there is mass exodus of labour from interior of china to these SEZs and cities. The Hukou system in China discourages this labour class to keep their families along with them and the whole burden of caring their child comes on mother’s shoulder  who stay in villages. This also discourages the labour class to go for more child.

Because of all above factors, there are new kind of crimes is on rise in China, one most prominent is that of new borns' abduction. The Chinese law also has been lenient towards these abductors, if the child who has been abducted is being treated properly and if the abductors don’t create any obstacles during rescuing of the child. One child policy has led to put complete burden of family on a single child. There has been found that the child having no siblings have more likely to develop individualistic, selfish, arrogant and non-cooperative attitude. There is more probability of having mental and personality disorders in such children. And there is also more likely that these children become victim of drug abuse and other wrongful activities. All these boils down to the most important fact that in many cases, a single child won’t able to appreciate the family values, since he misses lot of companionships like his/her sibling during their childhood with whom he/she can share his/her emotions, will play together, fight together and have lot of beautiful memories of childhood. He/she misses the care of his/her Uncles and aunts and memories with their nearest cousins. The fault here lies not with the child but it lies in their parents who could not able to think of such consequences which may occur with their child. According to G. Stanley Hall, a psychologist, professor and the first president of the American Psychological Association - "Being an only child is disease in itself." One may not concur with him because his views are based on his research in Western society which is not true in current Indian context but his views will have validity in future as our society is also heading towards more and more westernization.

This part of a blog is to reflect upon the problems which are emerging or most likely to emerge in future. My comparison with China is to address those Indians who believe that one child policy is good is actually not. 

What should be an ideal population policy?? I will discuss it in next part.